摘要
发电投资项目具有不确定性因素多、决策难度大的特点,而节能减排、排污权交易等措施的实施会在相当程度上影响发电投资项目尤其是火电等非清洁能源项目的价值,从而进一步增加了发电投资项目评估的复杂性。在此背景下,针对排污权交易实施后的电力工业环境,提出一种新的发电项目投资评价方法,建立了相应的实物期权模型,采用最小二乘蒙特卡洛方法获取项目价值及最优投资时机,最后通过算例分析了市场因素和监管措施对发电投资的影响。
Generation investment decision-making is a very complicated problem in the electricity market environment due to various kinds of uncertainties. The enforcement of the energy-saving and emission reduction policy as well as the emissions trading scheme will make the problem even more complicated especially for coal-fired generation units. Against such a background,a new approach is developed for evaluating the value of a generation investment project in a power industry environment with the emission trading enforced. A real option based model for this purpose is proposed,and the project value and optimal investment timing obtained by the least-squares Monte-Carlo method. The impact of market factors and the regulating policy on generation investment decision-making are illustrated by a numerical example with different scenarios.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第4期23-28,共6页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(200805610020)~~
关键词
发电投资
排污权交易
实物期权
蒙特卡洛方法
generation investment decision-making
emissions trading scheme
real options approach
Monte-Carlo method
