金融体系结构与金融危机

Financial Structure and Financial Crisis

本文通过跨国实证分析,系统考察了金融体系结构和金融危机之间的相互联系和决定因素。实证结果表明:(1)金融体系结构对金融危机的发生概率具有显著影响,"市场主导型"金融体系的国家比"银行主导型"金融体系的国家更容易发生金融危机;(2)金融危机期间不同国家经济受冲击的程度也与金融体系结构密切相关,在那些具有"市场主导型"金融体系结构的国家,一旦发生金融危机,其GDP增长率受到的负面冲击将更大;(3)从金融体系结构的内部构成来看,金融危机的发生概率随着一国金融市场规模的增大而显著升高,同时随着一国银行业规模的增大而显著降低。上述事实倾向表明,在金融体系结构的两个主要构成部分中,银行在某种程度上扮演着金融稳定器的角色,而金融市场则内含着某些诱发不稳定的因素。

this paper investigates the relationship between financial structure and financial crisis based on the cross-country data of 55 countries.The empirical results show that:(1) financial structure has a significant impact on the probability of financial crisis,that is,countries with market-based financial systems are more prone to financial crisis than those with bank-based financial systems;(2) for all sample countries that had a financial crisis,the slowdown of economic growth in countries with market-based financial systems is more severe than those with bank-based financial systems;(3) the probability of financial crisis rises as the expansion of financial market and falls as the growth of banking industry.The above conclusion tends to indicate that in the two major parts of financial structure,banks play a certain role of financial stabilizer while financial market may contain some unstable factors.