“言”、“行”、人民币实际汇率制度弹性与宏观经济绩效

Words,Deeds,De Facto RMB Exchange-rate Regime and Macroeconomic Performance (1954-2008)

本文利用外汇市场压力方法建立并经验地估计了人民币实际汇率制度弹性。在此基础上,考察了中国货币当局在人民币汇率制度安排上的言行一致性问题和不同的实际汇率制度安排下的中国宏观经济绩效。研究发现:一是"害怕浮动"在为中国提供货币政策纪律的同时,也赋予了货币当局采用扩张性货币政策促进产出增长的能力;二是人民币实际的汇率制度安排越具有弹性,就越易导致较高的通货膨胀,反之亦然;三是无论中国名义上宣称了什么类型的汇率制度,实际的人民币汇率制度越具有弹性,就越不利于中国实际产出的增长。反之亦然。在此基础上,结合汇率制度名义和实际分类法的思想,本文认为,在当前人民币名义上宣称有管理的浮动汇率制度这个既定前提下,人民币实际的汇率制度表现为"害怕浮动"的特征不仅是合理的政策选择,而且也是有利于中国的福利增进的。

Using the exchange market pressure approach,the paper constructs and estimates the de facto RMB exchange rate flexibility index,upon which the paper investigates empirically into macroeconomic performances under different de facto exchange rate regimes and the consistency between words and deeds of China's monetary authority.The paper finds that fear of floating not only introduces monetary policy discipline into China's monetary authority but also provides the authority with expansionary monetary policy to facilitate output growth.Also,the paper finds that the more flexible the de facto RMB exchange rate regime is,the higher the inflation is,and vice versa.Finally,the paper finds that the more flexible the de facto RMB exchange rate regime is,the lower the output growth is,despite whatever de jure exchange rate regime China's monetary authority has announced,and vice versa.Based on the findings,the paper,holds that given the de jure managed floating regime that China's monetary authority had announced,fear of floating is a desired option for China and is contributable to China's welfare enhancement both for the time being and in the near future.