次贷危机是否与众不同——本轮危机与既往金融危机的比较分析

Is the Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis So Different?——The Comparative Analysis of Current Crisis and Previous Financial Crisis

本文比较了次贷危机与既往金融危机后发现:次贷危机爆发前的房价、股价攀升更为显著,而危机爆发后的跌幅也更为惨烈;次贷危机爆发前美国经常账户赤字率要高于历次金融危机爆发前的平均水平。从行为金融角度分析,每一次危机演进的全过程,投资者的行为及心理均表现为危机前的非理性疯狂、危机来临时的极度惊恐。不同的是,每次危机投资对象有所差异。本轮危机对世界经济的负面影响要更为深远,涉及面更为广泛,复杂程度也远甚于历次危机。最后,本文还探析了金融危机演进的基本规律。

This paper compares the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the past financial crises.The results show that before the outbreak of the sub-prime mortgage crisis,the housing prices,stock prices rose even more significantly,and after the outbreak of the crisis,the prices decline more severely.The U.S.current account deficit rate is higher than the average level of previous financial crises before the outbreak of the crises.From the perspective of behavioral finance,in the whole process of every crisis,behavior and psychology of investors have shown irrational crazy at the pre-crisis,then become extreme panic at the post-crisis.The difference of each crisis is the different investment Object.This crisis is more negative effect on the world economy,covers a wider range,more complexity .Finally,this paper analyses the evolution law of the financial crisis.