金融危机与货币政策:一个新的理论框架——兼论货币区的“三元悖论”之解

Financial Crises and A New Framework for Monetary Policy——Solution of Trilemma in Currency Area

信贷和资产价格的繁荣萧条周期,在自我实现机制和金融加速器机制下,会导致金融风险的积累和金融失衡,金融失衡多以金融危机的方式释放。这种繁荣萧条周期与不当的货币政策有紧密关系。奉行"规则优于相机抉择"和以显性的或隐性的通货膨胀目标为最终目标、以利率为操作规则为最大特征的现行货币政策框架对此表现的是宽容和无奈。与多数学者试图把资产价格纳入现行货币政策框架下的目标体系中的主张不同,本文提出一个兼具总量与结构的复合调控特征的贷款准备金政策主张,构建模型来说明贷款准备金政策对资产价格的调控和对货币区内成员货币政策独立性的保持。

Credit and asset price boom-bust cycles would lead to the accumulation of financial risks and financial imbalances.Financial imbalances almost release them such as financial crisis in the self-fulfilling mechanisms and the financial accelerator mechanism.Between such boom-bust cycles and improper monetary policy have close relationship.Facing this,the framework for current monetary policy is the performance of tolerance and a sense of helplessness,which has the largest characteristics of'rules rather than discretion'and explicit or implicit inflation target as the ultimate goal and interest rate rules for the operation.Different with the majority of scholars trying to asset prices into the target system of the existing monetary policy formwork,this paper puts forward a policy of loan reserve requirements that have the characteristics of complex control both the total amount and structure,and modeling to explain how to controlassetpricesandtomaintaintheindependenceofmonetarypolicyofeachmemberinacurrencyarea.