上海城市地下水应急供应需求量预测研究

Study on the Prediction of Urban Groundwater Demand under Emergency in Shanghai

本文主要研究应急状态下城市地下水需求量,选取上海市为研究对象,基于上海市历年人口统计数据,获取对上海市人口进行预测的各种模型参数,通过几种模型的对比,利用模拟精度较高的马尔萨斯模型预测,预测结果表明,2020年上海市总人口将达到1998.88万人,这与《上海市总体规划》中2020年上海市控制人口为2000万人的要求相符合。并参考联合国赈灾救助标准、世界卫生组织建议,依据应急状态的严重程度和持续时间,确定了上海市四种级别的应急供水标准,综合评估了四种应急响应下各行政区的单日需水量,其中浦东新区需水总量最大。

This paper mainly studies the urban groundwater demand under the emergent state in Shanghai. Based on the historical demographic statistical data, the various model parameters were figured out for the population prediction of Shanghai. Through validation and comparison, the Malthusian model with high precision of simulation, is applied to prediction the population of Shanghai in 2020 will reach 19.9885 million, which meets the demand of 20 million in 2002 in the Overall Planning of Shanghai. Meanwhile, referenced to the United Nations Disaster Relief Aid Standards and the recommendations of WHO, according to the severity and duration of the emergent state, four kinds of emergent water supply standards in Shanghai are established. At last, comprehensive assessment of single - day water demand of different districts under the four emergent responses are determined in which the Pudong New Area has the largest water demand.