1995年来中国省际入境旅游相对优势演化的空间特征分析

ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL CHARACTERISTIC OF RELATIVE PREDOMINANCE EVOLVEMENT OF CHINESE INBOUND TOURISM SINCE 1995

从区位商的角度,通过引入演化概率矩阵,定量的探讨了1995—2005年来中国省际入境旅游相对优势差异的演化情况,并通过对演化概率矩阵的空间分解,分析了空间环境对入境旅游相对优势演化的影响。结果表明,中国省际间入境旅游相对优势存在差异,但这种差异在10年的演化过程中整体上呈现不断下降的态势,差异的变化和政策以及突发事件密切相关。自身的相对优势基础对该地区入境旅游相对优势的演化存在着十分重要的影响,高相对优势基础地区的演化趋向于衰退演化;低相对优势地区的演化趋向于增长演化,且低相对优势基础地区发生突变演化的概率高于高相对优势基础地区。相对优势演化概率在空间上并不独立,东部区域中低相对优势基础地区的增长演化概率明显高于中西部地区,说明东部区域中低相对优势基础地区入境旅游的发展好于中西部地区。区域合作、交通改善、资源开发是演化重要影响因素。

With the development of tourism industry, it is important to research on disparity of tourism devel- opment in China. Many research papers often pay attention to static diversity in one year, and these diversity researches give priority to absolute diversity and neglect the evolvement of relative predominance diversity. This paper quantificationally discusses the evolvement of relative predominance of inter-provincial inbound tourism in China from 1995 to 2005 from the view of location quotient and with the introduction of evolve- ment probability matrix. The relative predominance of Chinese inter-provincial inbound tourism shows differences, which presents the trend of continual narrowing in the evolvement over the past decade. In addition, the change of differences is closely related to the national polices and emergencies. The relative predominance basic influences the rel- ative predominance evolvement of inbound tourism of that area. To be specific, as the high basic area inclines to decline, the low basic area tends to rise relatively. Besides, the probability of unusual evolvement in low basic area is bigger than that in high basic area. This probability of evolvement in relative predominance is not independent in space; the special environment has a big influence on the evolvement of relative predominance of inbound tourism. The rising probability of low basic area in Eastern China is obviously more than that of Midwest area of China. It means that the development of inbound tourism of low basic area in eastern of China is better than that in Midwest China.