发展中国家经济增长与能源消费强度收敛的实证分析

An Analysis on the Relation between the Energy Consumption Intensity and the Economic Growth in Developing Countries

本文假设发展中国家与发达国家之间的能源消费强度差异是两者之间人均GDP差异的函数,然后在加入了地区和时间虚拟变量后检验二者之间的关系,并通过使用面板数据计量模型对1991～2005年10个发展中国家和10个发达国家进行实证估计。本文的研究结论为:第一,发展中国家与发达国家之间的人均GDP差异存在收敛,随着人均GDP的收敛,两者之间的能源消费强度差异也是收敛的,并且收敛的速度快于人均GDP的收敛速度。第二,所选取的这10个发展中国家在缩小与发达国家之间的经济差异过程中,其能源使用效率都在提高,但仍然明显落后于发达国家,因此,必须借鉴发达国家的成功经验,进一步采取措施提高其能源使用效率。

We suppose that the difference of energy consumption intensity between developing countries and developed countries is the function of the difference of per capita GDP between the two sides. Then we test the relationship between two dummy variables of country and time we added, and estimate the coefficients by panel data of 10 developing countries and 10 developed countries from 1991 to 2005. Our findings are as follows: firstly, the difference of per capita GDP tends to convergence between the developing countries and the developed countries. With the convergence of per capita GDP the difference of energy consumption intensity between the two sides also tends to convergence and its speed is faster than that of per capita GDP. Secondly, in the process of narrowing the economic disparities with the developed countries, energy efficiency of 10 developing countries has been improved, but still lag behind that of developed countries. So the developing countries should increase their energy efficiency further.