人民币实际汇率与中国就业——基于内生劳动力供给模型的实证研究

The Real Exchange Rate of RMB and Employment of China:A Study based on the Endogenous Labor Supply Models

本文首先在个体跨期最优理论模型中引入内生劳动力供给因素,建立以中国就业为研究对象的理论模型和相应的计量模型,然后运用Johansen协整分析法、Granger因果检验法及VEC模型探讨1985～2007年期间人民币实际汇率对中国就业的影响。结果表明:长期而言,人民币实际汇率贬值将促进中国就业,人民币实际汇率升值则会抑制就业;而世界实际利率与中国就业显著正相关。在短期内,人民币汇率调整对就业影响存在一定的滞后性,甚至会出现与长期关系相反的现象;世界实际利率与中国就业关系与长期相左。根据上述分析结果,本文提出了相关的政策建议。

In this article, we establish an optimizing inter-temporal agent model with endogenous labor supply incorporated and set up a theory model and the metrological model object to the employment of China. Then using Johansen cointegrating technique, Granger causality test and VEC model to find the relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB and employment of China from 1985 to 2007. Empirical test shows that in the long term depreciation of the real exchange rate of RMB will impel the employment of China, while appreciation of the real exchange of RMB will curb rising employment. The actual interest rate of international market is related to China′s employment positively and significantly. In the short term, the response of employment to fluctuation of RMB is delayed, the relationship between employment and the actual interest rate of international market is opposite to the long term. According to the above analysis, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.