应对灾变的电力安全风险评估框架及其应用

Coping with Catastrophe Power Security Risk Assessment Framework and Its Application

电力作为基础能源,其安全问题事关重大。为提高电力系统的可靠性,评估和监管整个电力系统及其内部潜在的风险,研究应对灾变的电力系统安全风险评估体系具有重要的理论意义和工程实用价值。文章首先分析了现有电力系统安全风险评估体系存在的缺陷,提出应对灾变的电力安全风险评估必须引入政府和电力企业共同参与的模式,进而从实用化的角度,围绕防止电力系统大面积停电的目标,建立了新型实用化的政企合作应对灾变的电力安全风险评估体系框架。该框架由传统的稳定分析、可靠性概率分析以及系统在结构、技术、设备及管理等方面的风险分析等几个维度共同构成。然后,以广东省电力系统为例,建立了广东省电力系统安全风险评估框架。目前,该体系框架已在广东省得到初步应用,证明了其科学性和实用性。

As a kind of basic energy, electric power energy security problem is very crucial. To raise the power system stability, assess and supervise the whole power system and its inner potential risks as well as establishing the power security risk assessment system to cope with catastrophe is of great theoretical and practical importance. The paper first analyses the defects of existing power system risk assessment system. It proposes that the power security risk assessment work should adopt the mode of government and electric power enterprises collaboration. Then from the practical point of view, it establishes the new practical power system risk assessment framework that should be cooperated by both government and electric power e/aterprises to cope with catastrophe and prevent large area blackout in power system. The new risk assessment framework is consist of traditional stability analysis, newly developed probabilistic reliability analysis as well as the risk analysis on power system structure, technology, equipment and management aspects. Then it takes Guangdong province power system as an example, implements the risk assessment framework into Guangdong province. At present the newly developed risk assessment framework has been applied in Guangdong province and therefore proves that the assessment system framework is scientific and practical.