生命周期评价中清单的不确定性分析

Uncertainty analysis in the inventory of the life cycle assessment

生命周期评价中存在着广泛的不确定性,尤其是生命周期评价中清单的不确定性因素会严重影响研究结果的可信性。结合生命周期清单中不确定性的特点,指出不确定性分析的作用。综述目前常用的生命周期清单的不确定性分析方法,包括在不确定性评估中常用的质量指标法、蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)法、结合法及常用的敏感性分析方法。指出各种方法存在的优缺点以及在实际中的应用,最后提出生命周期清单中不确定性分析的研究方向。

This paper is aimed at introducing its authors＇ work on the uncertainty of life cycle assessment analysis （LCA） and nur analysis of the characteristic features of such uncertainty. As a matter of fact, there exists vast uncertainty in the life cycle assessment, especially, in the life cycle inventory（LCI）, where the relial）ility of assessment results, including the data quality indicators, is in many ways, are susceptible. To change the situation, we have tried to integrate the two methods, that is, the data quality indicators and the Monte Carlo simulation into one, plus the sensitivity analysis method. Since the data quality indicators and Monte Carlo simulation both belong to the uncertainty assessment, we should assimilate the merits and rid of their demerits while using them in praetice. As compared with the uncertainty analysis, the sensitivity analysis seems more mature. And, finally, the authors have advanced the quantification of the cal- culated results and established a unified methnd, which serves as the main content of the present study.