生态风险与生态安全的评价方法及前景

Advances in ecological risk assessment and ecosecurity assessment methods and prospects

各种生态环境问题的严重后果引起了人们对环境与生态的重视,并催生了生态风险与生态安全评价。为了更好地进行这两方面的评价,首先分别综述生态风险和生态安全评价的发展进程,突出主要研究方法的介绍,由此总结生态风险评价与生态安全评价的关系以及生态风险与生态安全评价的发展趋势。生态风险评价主要有健康危险度法、环评指数法、景观生态法、空间统计或地统计法、相对风险模型等方法;生态安全评价主要有综合指数法、景观生态法、生态承载力和生态足迹方法、突变级数等方法。生态风险与生态安全评价是从相反的角度研究生态系统的状况和潜在威胁,生态风险评价偏重细节分析,生态安全评价偏重整体分析。空间和时间尺度的扩大、评价方法的改进、评价标准的制定和评价的可信性检验都是生态风险评价与生态安全评价的发展趋势。

This article aims to make a review on the advances in en- vironmental risk assessment by illustrating the development processes, conceptual frmneworks, the mathematieal models of ecological risk and ecological security generally adopted at present while focusing the introduction of the mathematical methods. Ecological risk assessment and the eco-sccurity assessnmnt, as two concepts originated from the initial cnviromnental risk assessment, then developed into ecological risk and ecologieal security assessment, are often introduced with the actual regional ecological risk and eco-security assessment. What＇ s more, it has also to he necessary to come to mind that the above two topics have both developed from a single-factor analysis to the current multi-factor analysis, whose methods of assessments have been devel- oped and improved continuously to cater to the latest needs for the coo-environment research. The conceptual framework, which is origi- nated from the human health evaluation model, has later developed into different conceptual models, sueh as pressure-state-response model for eeo-security assessment. In addition to traditional methods, such as health risk method and EIA index method, more and nmre researches have heen done for the large-sealed regional hazard assess- ments based on the landscape ecology principles, spatial statistics or geo-statistics, etc. Along with the above said research areas, nmre and more researches on the social factors involving eco-security have been done based on the index method, landscape ecology approach or ecological carrying capacity method, mutation series method as well as other nmthods by giving more thoughts on eco-security mathematical models, for example, Markov model or Cellular Automaton approach. Such researches are often done in coordinated and integrated study of the relationship between ecological risk and ecological security assessment, though negative perspectives are sometimes talked about the ecological system evaluation. And, finally, analysis of the research trends, the developmental theoretical approaches, assess- ment methods and evaluation tools on-going in the past few years have also been studied in the article. While reviewing the effectiveness and efficiency in assessing the ecological hazards or the ecological security, we have also given some advice on the ecological management.