变燃速发射药连续化生产模糊综合评价模型研究

Comprehensive fuzzy continuous production evaluation model for the variable-combustion rate propellants

变燃速发射药连续化生产过程属于易燃、易爆、有毒系统,稍有不慎,均可能引起恶性事故。为了减少和避免事故的发生,发现生产过程中的关键危险环节从而引起注意,提高检查力度尤为重要。采用模糊综合评价法针对此系统建立数学模型,对系统中各主要生产环节的生产材料、加工机械及工艺过程进行权重分析,应用模糊数学多目标决策分析法进行安全评价,旨在找出系统发生事故的关键原因。结果表明,变燃速发射药连续化生产系统事故影响因素中工作人员所占的权重最大,其次为生产工艺、原料物质、机械设备、作业环境。

The paper is aimed at introducing a fuzzy continuous production comprehensive evaluation model for the variable-combustion rate propellants developed by the author, whose purpose is to make it easier to ensure the security for the production of poisonous, explo- sives and flammable materials as well as goods-making systems. In order to reduce and even get rid of production accidents that may re- suh in severe casualties and property losses, it is necessary for the production operators to find the key factors that may account for the haphazard areas or links timely and in turn give timely inspections of the particular links that are likely to lead to such hazardous acci- dents. For such a purpose, we have built a math model by using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method in this paper, giving a com- prehensive weighting analysis of such factors, as the processing ma- chinery and materials used in production, as well as all the major production processes in the manufacturing system. Our study of such a model succeeds in discovering the major facors that may account for the likely-occuring accidents by using a fuzzy mathematical multi-pur- pose decision-analyzing method, which lies in sorting out the key in- fluential factors for the weight evaluation so as to improve the intrinsi- cally existing security hazards that may account for the abnormalities, The results of itss trial use indicate that the production staff should be the primary factor that accounts for the largest proportion of the weight among all the factors responsible for the variable-burning rate propel- lant continuous production system; The next factor is followed by the production processing, material control, the production equipment and facilities, as well as the operating environment. In order to testify such theoretical and practical liabilities, we have also investigated the explosive and propellant manufacturing enterprises and found that the evaluation results and actual statistics data are highly consistent and relevant with each other.