中国货币政策中间目标变量的选择

Monetary Targeting in China by Co Integration Tests

利用互协关系检验（ｃｏ－ｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｉｏｎｔｅｓｔｓ）的方法，考察我国的货币总量Ｍ０、Ｍ１和Ｍ２与其他主要宏观经济变量之间是否存在一种长期的稳定关系．结果表明，Ｍ２与工业生产总值ＧＩＰ、企业１年期短期名义贷款利率ｒ之间存在着长期稳定关系，由此估计出的货币需求函数有较好的统计性质，因此，Ｍ２应是我国的货币政策中间目标变量的首选对象．

This paper investigates whether a stable relationship exists between the monetary variables( M0,M1,M2 ) and key macroeconomic variables. Co integration techniques are used which are very well suited for this purpose. The co integration tests shows that there exists some long run relationship among M2, the gross industrial production GIP and the nominal rate of interest on one year term loans. The estimated money demand function for M2 is satisfactory, which suggests that M2 is a good indicator for monetary policy.