湖南水田耕整机的发展与前景分析

An Analysis of the Development and Prospect of Paddy Field Tillage Machines in Hunan

本文从湖南近几年水田耕整机的发展过程和现状出发,采用指数平滑法预测“八五”期间湖南的耕整机发展趋势。结合长沙地区的大量实测综合数据,进行了耕整机与畜力的比较效益及其作业的规模效益分析,运用单项经济效益替代数学模型,对耕整机技术发展的经济界限进行了探讨。为今后湖南乃至南方各省进行重点推广提供了理论依据。

Proceeding from the development process and present situation of Paddy Field Tillage Machines (PFTM) in Hunan recent years, this paper, using exponential smooth technology, forecasts the development tendency of PFTM during the eighth five-year plan in Hunan. Based on a vast amount of data collected and measured in Changsha area, the paper compares the benefit of PFTM with that of working animals, analyzes the size benefits of operations of PFTM and working animals, and studies the economic boundary of technical development of PFTM by means of economic benefit analysis for each of them instead of mathematical model. The analysis in the paper provides theoretic basis for popularization of PFTM in Hunan and other provinces in coming days.