制裁伊朗究竟会伤害谁

Who will actually be hurt by sanctions against Iran

伊朗核计划不断加速推进,接近突破和平利用核能的底线,这再次成为国际关注的焦点,促使美欧加紧推动新一轮对伊制裁。然而,欧盟在伊朗拥有多重利益,对深化制裁心态矛盾;在伊核问题上,欧盟政策越是独立于美国,其影响力就越大,反之,影响力就越小。俄罗斯在伊朗拥有利益最多,制裁政策摇摆性更大;日本和韩国也均是伊朗重要的经济和能源伙伴,因此也不愿因制裁而殃及本国利益。伊朗经济虽然严重依赖石油出口,汽油消费需要从国外进口,但由于伊朗已经总结出一整套应对经济制裁的有效之策,制裁很难奏效。更重要的是,伊朗矢志发展核计划,有着深刻的政治和安全背景,用经济制裁对付伊朗,虽然是个办法,但绝不是好办法。

The continued advancement of Iran’s nuclear program is close to breaking through the limits of the peaceful use of nuclear energy and has once again become the focus of international attention. It has prompted the US and Europe to intensify their push for a new round of sanctions against Iran. However, the EU has a various interests in Iran, and feels conflicted about deepening sanctions against Iran. When it comes to Iran, the more independent EU policy is of the United States, the stronger the influence of the United States and the weaker that of Europe. Russia has the greatest interests in Iran, and its oscillations on sanctions policy have also been the greatest. Japan and Korea are also each important economic and resource partners of Iran, and are unwilling to sacrifice their own country’s interests for the sake of sanctions. Although the Iranian economy is heavily dependent on petroleum exports and imports the gasoline it consumes, Iran has prepared a complete set of effective policies to deal with sanctions, which will make it very difficult for sanctions to have their desired effect. Even more importantly, Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions would have a deep political and security background. Actually proving that Iran and the international community are in opposition would actually increase the speed of development of Iran’s nuclear plans. Using sanctions to deal with Iran is an option, but it’s certainly not a good one.