调整·变革·合作 危中求机 面向低碳未来——《2009年国内外油气行业发展报告》综述

Adjustment, reforming and cooperation, transcending the crisis and stepping into the low carbon future——A summary of the Report on Domestic and Overseas Oil & Gas Industry Development in 2009

2009年，世界石油需求受金融危机影响继续下降，石油市场供需基本面宽松，国际油价触底后强劲回升，全年平均62美元／桶；世界勘探开发投资在经历连续10年增长后首次下降，部分大型项目被暂缓或取消；世界天然气产量和消费量双双下降，主要市场天然气价格大幅下跌，短期内全球LNG供需形势由偏紧转为过剩；世界炼油能力在亚太和中东地区的带动下大幅增长，总体能力过剩，加工总量下降，毛利大幅下滑；由资源国主导的国际油气合作格局进一步发展，资源国与新兴市场消费国之间政府主导的互利合作明显增强，两伊对外合作取得重大进展，国际油气合作模式酝酿变革。展望2010年，全球石油供需仍较宽松，预计全年国际油价平均7-080美元／桶，波动区间为60-100美元／桶；成品油仍将供过于求，炼油毛利将继续维持较低水平；世界天然气消费同比增长2％，至3．05万亿立方米，全球LNG市场仍呈买方市场格局；主要资源国仍将延续偏紧的对外合作政策，资源国与新兴市场消费国的国家石油公司之间的互利合作将在政府推动和主导下进一步加强，合作领域继续向上下游一体化发展；全球上游资本支出将恢复增长，总体投资将比2009年增长10％左右。2009年中国石油消费先抑后扬、增速放缓，对外依存度继续提高；国内成品油供需总体由偏紧转为宽松，油品消费结构发生明显变化，国内外价格关联性增强，市场竞争更加激烈；天然气消费继续保持较快增长态势，多气源供应格局初步形成，市场快速发展期的阶段性矛盾凸显；国有大型石油企业生产经营平稳运行，主要经营指标保持稳定，一系列重大战略工程项目顺利推进，海外拓展取得突破性进展，国际影响力大幅提升。展望2010年，国内石油需求将继续回暖，预计石油表观消费量将达到4．27亿吨，增速在5％以上；国内成品油需求较快增长，但市场仍将延续供略大于求的局面；天然气消费量继续保持快速增长势头，可望超过1000亿立方米；随着中亚天然气管道和新建LNG接收站的陆续投产，进口天然气将突破100亿立方米。同时，国家能源政策调整步伐将进一步加快，酝酿多年的《能源法》等相关法律可望正式出台，一系列推动节能减排、规范和促进新能源产业发展的政策将加快制定，资源税改革和碳税等环境税的征收也将提上日程；油气价格形成机制改革将继续深化，新的天然气价格机制可能推出。

The Report on Domestic and Overseas Oil & Gas Industry Development in 2009 published by the CNPC Research Institute of Economics and Technology pointed out that in 2009, as a result of the financial crisis global oil demand continued to decrease, and supply and demand were slack. After the international oil price hit bottom it quickly rose again, the average oil price over the year was 62 USD/barrel. Investment in exploration and development fell for the first time after ten years of continued growth, and a number of large projects were postponed or cancelled. World production and consumption of natural gas both fell, and the price of natural gas fell dramatically in major markets. In the short term, the global supply of LNG has gone from struggling to keep up with demand to overcapacity. Global oil refining capacity increased by a large margin and there is overcapacity throughout the industry. The amount of oil to be processed decreased and gross profits have slid down. Except for the Asia Pacific and the Middle East, the construction of oil refining facilities is at a standstill. Cooperation between resource rich countries has increased, and there was further strengthening of mutually beneficial cooperation between resource rich countries and oil consuming countries with emerging markets. Iran and Iraq’s overseas cooperation has made significant progress. A transformation of international oil and gas cooperation methods is slowly taking place. Looking towards 2010, as the world economy slowly recovers, global oil demand will return to positive growth, but supply will continue to be relaxed. It is estimated that the average oil price over the year will be 70-80 USD per barrel, with fluctuations occurring between 60 and 100 USD per barrel. Supply of refined oil products will continue to exceed demand, and gross profits for oil refining will stay at a rather low level. Emerging markets such as China and India will continue to have relatively good growth trends. It is estimated that in 2010 world consumption of natural gas will be 3.05 trillion cubic meters, which is approximately 2% higher than 2009 and LNG will continue to be traded in a buyer’s market. The major oil rich countries will continue to have relatively strict policies towards overseas cooperation, but cooperation between companies in oil rich countries of the Middle East and Africa and oil consuming countries with emerging markets will be further strengthened under the promotion and guidance of governments. The sphere of cooperation will continue to be the integration of up and downstream. In 2010, expenditure for upstream projects will begin to grow again, with total investment higher than 2009 by 10%. In 2009,Chinese domestic oil consumption was restrained and then raised, the growth rate slowed and the rate of Chinese dependency on foreign oil continued to increase. Overall domestic supply and demand of refined oil changed from rather tight to slack. The consumption patterns of refined oil underwent significant change, the link between domestic and international prices became noticeably stronger,and market competition became more intense. Natural Gas consumption continued to grow and a situation of multiple sources of gas supply started to take shape. The temporary conflicts associated with high growth phases became very apparent. The large government owned oil companies maintained stability in production and operations, with the major operations indicators remaining steady. A series of large strategic projects have been successfully begun, overseas development has achieved breakthrough progress, and international influence has increased dramatically. Looking towards 2010, domestic oil demand will continue to warm up, it is estimated that apparent consumption will reach 427 million tons, growing by 5%. The growth in domestic demand for refined oil will be relatively fast, but supply will continue to exceed demand. Growth in natural gas consumption will maintain its rising trend, possibly exceeding 100 billion cubic meters. Following the Central Asian Pipeline and the newly constructed LNG reception stations coming progressively into production, imports of natural gas will exceed 10 billion cubic meters. At the same time, the pace of adjustment of national energy policies will further accelerate, and the 'Resources Law' and other related legislation which has been under consideration for many years will possibly be officially launched. Regarding independent emissions reduction targets, it is expected that China will continue to formulate a series of policies related to energy conservation and emissions reduction, and the regulation and promotion of the new energy industry. The launching of the resource tax reform plan might be brought forward, and environmental taxes such as a carbon tax might be implemented ahead of schedule. Thorough reform of the oil and gas price setting mechanism will continue, and a new natural gas price setting mechanism is possible.