分析性叙述:为复杂的历史进程建模

Modeling Complex Historical Processes with Analytic Narratives

分析性叙述研究计划表达了一种使已经被许多学者所采用的，即把历史的比较研究和理性选择模型结合起来的研究进路更加清晰、更加明确的努力。为了理解制度起源与变迁的实际情况，分析性叙述坚持把对具体案例的深刻把握与精确理论模型相结合。然而，这些条件还不足以使分析性叙述与其他娴熟的比较历史研究相区别。这篇文章的核心在于阐释“是什么构成了分析性叙述研究进路”，以及“它与其他进行严格比较历史研究的研究进路有什么区别”两大问题。

Both research with case and building model are common research ways in social science. They look very different but in deep relation with each other. Unless they integrate together, there isn＇t a progress of social science. This paper argues the approach systemically, such as content, essence and theoretic shelf, and so on. It also argues that analytic narrative go beyond the old rational choice method and research the special institution in special historic context with game theory. So social science can explain rebellion and revolution, state transforming and other important historical processes better.