政府支出对居民消费的影响——对Barro-Ricardo等价之谜的中国经验分析

The Impact of Government Spending on the Consumption——The Empirical Analysis on the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence

本文基于居民消费跨期最优化分析框架,从理论及实证角度分析了政府支出对居民消费的影响。理论研究表明,政府支出对居民消费的影响主要取决于消费者相对风险规避系数及私人消费支出与政府支出之间的相关系数。并以中国为例,在李嘉图等价框架下从经验角度考察了中国政府支出对居民消费的影响。短期内,李嘉图等价不成立,政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系,即政府支出增加将导致居民消费增加。尤其需要注意的是,与通过征税来增加政府支出相比,通过发行国债增加政府支出对总需求的扩张效应更大,积极的财政政策在我国是有效的。但在长期中,政府支出将完全挤占居民消费支出,因而支出政策不宜用于实现政府的长期经济目标。

This paper analyzed the relationship between government spending and consumption under the intertemporal optimization framework. It showed that the impact of government spending on the consumption depended on the CRRA and the correlation coefficient between the private and the government spending. We also examined the effect of Chinese government spending on the consumption empirically, and founded that Chinese government expenditure was complement with private consumption in the short term. Especially, the issue of bonds has greater effect on the aggregate demand than the tax collection; the active fiscal policy in China seems to be effective. In the long run, the private consumption will be crowded out by government expenditure, so the expenditure policy was not suitable to achieve the long-term goals.