中国能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与经济可持续增长

On China’s Energy Consumption, CO_2 Emission and Sustainable Growth

在低碳经济已成为未来经济发展模式新趋势的背景下,运用处理非期望产出的SBM模型计算出2000-2007年我国30个省区的碳环境技术效率,对能源消耗、二氧化碳与经济可持续增长的状况进行评价,进而尝试探究碳环境技术效率的影响因素。研究发现:(1)区域间能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与经济可持续发展状况差别显著。北京、上海、福建、浙江、广东、海南、江苏等东部地区处于低碳经济发展,而中部和西部地区碳环境技术效率普遍较低,特别是中部地区大部分省份高碳经济特征明显。(2)生活水平和技术进步都会极大促进碳环境技术效率的改善,工业结构重型化、粗放式增长方式及城市化阻碍碳环境技术效率的提高,制度因素尚未对碳环境技术效率改善产生显著影响。

In the context of low-carbon economy as the new trend of future economic development, this paper calculates the technological efficiency in the carbon environment of China＇s 30 provinces from 2000 to 2007 by applying the SBM model which can treat the non-expected output and evaluates the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emission and sustainable economic growth, so as to try to explore the influencing factors on the technical efficiency in the carbon environment. The study finds that there are obvious differences between the conditions of the regional energy consumption, CO2 emission and sustainable growth, with the examples of Beijing, Shanghai, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangsu and other eastern regions being developing in the low-carbon economy model, while the central and western regions generally having a lower carbon environmental technological efficiency, especially the economies of most provinces in the central area showing higher carbon characteristics. Another finding is that the standard of living and technological advances could greatly contribute to the improvement of the carbon environmental technological efficiency; the heavier industrial structure, extensive mode of growth and urbanization could hinder the improvement of carbon environmental technological efficiency; while the institutional factors have not produced obvious impact on the improvement of the technological efficiency.