基于MSVAR进出口贸易与经济增长的非线性效应分析

The Nonlinear Effects of Import and Export Trade on Economic Growth:Analysis Using MSVAR

运用MSVAR模型分析1952年～2007年中国进、出口贸易和经济增长之间的关系,应用bootstrap仿真实验检验模型系数的显著性,利用状态相依广义脉冲响应函数简化解释MSVAR模型变量之间的关系。研究结果表明,该方法能准确捕捉对外贸易和经济增长关系的状态转换的时点,可以明确地确定两种状态,即国内或者国际环境不稳定,不利于发展对外贸易的状态1;国内和国际环境稳定,有利于发展对外贸易的状态2。进出口增长率与GDP增长率存在动态非线性关系,在国内和国际环境有利于发展对外贸易的稳定状态下,进、出口增长率的冲击对经济增长有较长期的正效应;在国内和国际环境不利于发展对外贸易的不稳定状态下,进、出口增长率的冲击对经济增长有负影响,并且具有比稳定状态时冲击影响更大、延续期短的特征。进出口贸易在不同的经济环境下影响经济增长的效应不同。

This paper apply MSVAR model to analyze the relationship between import, export and economical growth since the foundation of China, use bootstrap method to test the significance of the estimated parameters, and employ state-dependence GIRF to explain the relation between parameters. The empirical model can accurately capture the time point of regime switching between foreign trade and economical growth, and definitely determine two states, state 1, unstable domestic and international environment which is , not suitable for foreign trade development; state 2, stable domestic and international environment which is suitable for foreign trade development. The empirical results whow that a dynamic nonlinear relation exists between the growth rate of foreign trade and GDP. The impetus of foreign trade has long-term positive effect on economic growth under the steady state at home and abroad, but under the instable state not suitable for foreign trade at home and abroad, the impetus has negative but short-term effect.