1997—2008年青岛市农地非农化过程与效果实证研究

Empirical Research on Farmland Conversion from Agricultural to Non-agricultural Use and Its Effects in Qingdao City from 1997 to 2008

研究目的:研究青岛市1997—2008年间不同经济增长阶段农地非农化特征,探讨影响农地非农化因素的差异性,估算农地非农化对经济增长的贡献率以及对产业结构变动的作用。研究方法:采取实证研究,运用对比分析,建立灰色关联模型、柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和环境库兹涅茨曲线。研究结果:(1)青岛市农地非农化过程具有显著阶段性特征;(2)建设用地增加与相关经济社会数据关联度普遍不高,且极差较小;(3)建设用地增量对二三产业增加值贡献率远低于固定资产投资;(4)农地非农化趋势具有典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征。研究结论:强化土地利用总体规划的空间约束力,加强土地利用年度计划对农地非农化的引导,合理把握农地非农化节奏,加大农转用批后监管力度,盘活存量和批而未供土地,避免农地的过度非农化。

The purposes of this paper are to find the characteristics of farmland conversion from agricultural to non-agricultural use in different economic growth stages in Qingdao City from 1997 to 2008,probe into the variance of impact factors on farmland conversion,and to estimate the contribution rate for economic growth as well as the influences caused by farmland conversion on the industrial structure change.Method employed is to establish the grey correlation model,Cobb-Douglas production function and environment Kuznets curves by the means of empirical research and comparative analysis.The results indicate：（1）there are significant stage characteristics in the process of farmland conversion from agricultural to non-agricultural use in Qingdao City;（2）there is not any significant correlation between the increase of construction land and the economy and society,moreover,the range between them is relatively low;（3）the contribution rate of construction land increment is far lower than the investment in fixed assets;（4）the non-agricultural trend of farmland conversion in Qingdao City has typical EKC characteristics.It is concluded that six measures must be implemented as follows：（1）enhance the spatial binding force of general land use planning;（2）strengthen the guidance of annual planning on farmland non-agricultural conversion;（3）reasonably control the rhythm of farmland non-agricultural conversion;（4）enhance the monitoring after the approval of farmland conversion;（5）improve the efficiency of already converted land including the land remained as banked;（6）avoid excessive farmland non-agricultural conversion.