2009—2010年温州工业经济形势分析与展望

Analysis and Prospect on Wenzhou Industrial Economic Situation from 2009 to 2010

研究发现,2009年1-10月温州工业生产增速处在相对低位,但工业产能利用率得到提高,工业经济良性循环的特征有所显现。针对2010年工业经济形势的研究结论是:温州工业资本形成能力是左右工业经济增速的关键因素,而工业企业宏观风险预期分歧将抑制新增产能形成;工业产品的产销表现和存货水平左右工业产品价格走势,并决定工业企业效益;供给面景气度回升态势将在工业各行业延续,但增长的先后和速度表现不一;工业出口复苏态势基本确立,但至少在2010年底前出口难以恢复高速增长;如果没有外生性因素的作用,2010年温州工业整体指标将延续2009年的相对低位水平,累计比增速将呈现逐月平稳小幅增长。

It is found that Wenzhou industrial output growth is comparatively low from January to October in 2009, but the industrial capacity utilization has improved and the sign of industrial virtuous cycle can be observed. A conclusion on the research of industrial economic situation of 2010 is made： the ability of Wenzhou industrial capital formation is vital to the industrial economic growth, while the division of macro-economy risk expectation will restrict the new production capacity. The production and sales of industrial products and stock level will decide the price of the products and the performance of enterprises. The recovery of supply-side boom will continue in various sectors, but there are differences in growth order and its speed. The recovery of industrial exports is obvious but there will not be any rapid increase at least by the end of 2010. If there are no exterior impacts, the gross industrial index of Wenzhou in 2010 will keep comparatively low as it was in 2009 and the cumulative growth rate will develop at a small speed per month.