土地用途转换效应评价模型与方法探讨

Evaluation Models and methods for Evaluating the effects of Land Use Conversions

通过遥感反模型、综合估算模型、生物地球化学循环模型3个模型探讨了土地用途转换效应评价模型与方法。结果表明,遥感反演模型以植被第一生产力模型为代表,能够在较大尺度上监测与土地用途转换密切联系的生态系统生产力变化;综合估算模型以农业生产力估算系统(ESAP)为代表,适用于评价土地用途转换导致的农业生产力变化;生物地球化学循环模型以CENTURY为代表,一般服务于模拟生态系统内部C、N、P与S营养元素的变化规律;土地用途转换效应评价模型为评价土地用途转换效应,深入分析土地用途带来的生态环境问题提供了工具,利用土地用途转换效应评价模型测算出的区域尺度土地用途转换效应对于合理制定土地利用管理政策具有指导价值。

Evaluation models and methods for land use conversion effects were discussed through remote sensing inversion,comprehensive estimation and biogeochemistry cycle model.The results showed that the remote sensing inversion model,which is represented by the vegetation first productivity model,and capable of monitoring the changes of ecosystem productivity due to land use conversion in a large scale.The comprehensive estimation model,which is represented by agricultural productivity estimation system（ESAP）,and adaptable to evaluate the impacts on agricultural productivity from land use conversion.The third kind model for analyzing the impacts of land use conversions,biogeochemical cycles model and represented by the CENTURY,is capable of simulating the impacts on cycles of C,N,P and S elements due to land use conversion.These models are utilized to evaluate the effects of land use conversion,analyze its causes and ecological effects.The estimation results of such models provide valuable information to faciliate not only systematic management of the exsiting land use conversion but also planning and policymaking for future land use management.