我国粮食产量影响因素灰色关联度比较研究

Comparative Study of Impacting Factors Gray Relation Value to the Production of Grain in China

在分析我国1985～2007年粮食生产变化情况的基础上,将此23年划分为3个阶段;选取粮食种植面积等8个影响粮食产量的因素,运用灰色系统理论对各个阶段中影响我国粮食生产的诸因素进行关联动态分析,量化了粮食总产量与诸因素的关联程度;依据关联度顺序的变化,总结了各因素对粮食产量的影响能力及变化趋势,并提出粮食生产可持续发展的政策建议。

Based on the analysis of the change of grain production during 1985-2007 in China,those 23 years were divided into three stages.The eight impact factors such as the area of grain were selected,according to the grey system theory,factors affecting grain production in each phase were analyzed and correlative degree between factors and grain production were quantitatively measured.Based on changes of the order of correlation,the impact abilities of different factors and trends were summarized,and sustainable development policy recommendations of grain production were proposed accordingly.