西藏北部高原气候变化趋势及预测——以那曲气象站为例

Variation Trend of Climate and the Prediction in the Northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

利用西藏北部高原那曲气象站1955～2006年气温、降水等资料,分析了西藏北部高原50年来的气候变化,并对未来气候变化的可能趋势作了预测。研究表明,西藏北部高原在过去50年间,气温、降水呈明显的波动上升趋势,且升温幅度远高于全球平均水平,主要表现为日最低气温的上升;未来50年西藏北部高原有明显的暖湿化趋势,将预测结果与2007～2008年的实际观测资料相比较,发现预测结果与实际值接近,因此,预测结果是基本可信的。

According to the temperature and precipitation data of Naqu meteorological station in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1955 to 2006,the climate variation in recent 50 years in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was analyzed and the future trend of climate in this area was predicted.Research showed that temperature and precipitation of the area in the past 50 years increased remarkably with a fluctuation.The increase speed was far above the global average level,which behaved as the increase of daily minimum temperature.In the future 50 years,the area will have an obvious warm-wet trend.Comparing the prediction results with the actual data from 2007 to 2008,it can be concluded that the results is in accordance with the actual data,as a result,the results is generally credible.