摘要
利用近20年来邵阳发生地区性大旱的年份建立时间序列,应用灰色灾变预测理论及方法,对邵阳地区未来可能出现大旱的年份进行预测,结果表明邵阳的大旱出现以2年为1个准周期,未来几个大旱出现的年份为2010、2012和2015年。灰色灾变预测的干旱结论为邵阳的抗旱工作提供科学了依据。
By using occurrence years of great drought in Shaoyang district in recent 20 years,the time sequence was established,and by gray disaster prediction theory,the possible great drought years in future in Shaoyang district were predicted.The results showed that one quasi-periodic of great drought occurrence in Shaoyang district is 2 years,the next great drought years are 2010,2012 and 2015.Gray prediction drought theory will provide scientific basis for drought resistance work in Shaoyang district.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第6期3013-3014,共2页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
邵阳地区
灰色灾变理论
大旱预测
Shaoyang district
Gray disaster theory
Great drought prediction
