中国城乡贫困动态演化的实证研究:1990～2005年

Empirical Analysis on the Poverty Dynamics in China:1990～2005

本文基于"中国营养与健康调查"1990～2005年的家庭微观调查数据,采用贫困指标束和转移矩阵的方法,分别考察了中国贫困的整体变动趋势及其动态演化特征。研究显示:中国城乡贫困整体呈现不断上升的趋势,但其各期贫困水平及上升幅度存在差异。城乡总体脱贫返贫概率变动趋势较为一致,但其水平存在差异,且城乡内部各收入组脱贫返贫概率的水平和变动趋势也不尽相同。城乡返贫概率都呈现明显的状态依赖特征,但城市脱贫概率的状态依赖不断加强,而农村脱贫概率的状态依赖有所减弱。大部分脱贫家庭收入变动到中位数收入的75%以上,同时大部分返贫家庭收入变动到贫困群体的较高收入组中。

Based on the household panel of CHNS in 1990-2005, this paper analyzes the statics and dynamics of poverty in China using poverty indicators and transition matrix. We conclude that： There is an overall upward trend in poverty of China, but the range and poverty levels are different between the urban and rural areas. The trend of change in the overall exit and entrance rate are the same in the urban and rural areas, but the overall level of each stage is different. Meanwhile, the level and trend of each group are not all the same. Both the exit and entrance rate in China show a state- dependence, but the state - dependence of exit rate in urban is being strengthened which is being weakened in rural areas.