中国金融发展与全要素生产率——基于时间序列的经验证据

Financial Development and Total Factor Productivity in China:Evidence from Time Series

全要素生产率问题是研究中国经济可持续增长的核心问题。本文利用界限检验法、基于ARDL法的协整系数估计、向量误差修正模型及其Granger因果关系检验等计量技术,考察了全要素生产率与金融发展等变量的关系。实证结果表明,全要素生产率与金融发展、外商直接投资、经济自由度三个变量存在长期均衡关系,并且从长期来看,金融发展、外商直接投资、经济自由度皆是全要素生产率变动的原因;而从短期来看,只有经济自由度才是全要素生产率变动的Granger原因。

Total factor productivity issue is very important for the study of sustainable economic growth in China. Econometrical analytical methods, including bounds testing approaches, cointegration coefficient estimation based on ARDL model, vector error correction model and Granger causality test, are used in researching the relationship among total factor productivity, financial development and some other variables. Empirical results show that, total factor productivity is cointegrated with financial development, foreign direct investment and economic freedom, and in the long run, the financial development, foreign direct investment and economic freedom cause total factor productivity to change. But in the short term, only economic freedom is Granger cause to total factor productivity change.