基于HP滤波分析的中国牺牲率的长期影响研究被引量：16

Empirical Analysis of Sacrifice Ratios with Long-lived Effect Based on HP Filter

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摘要牺牲率指实际产出损失与趋势通货膨胀率变化量的比率,用来衡量降低通货膨胀成本。Ball(1994)假设通货收缩周期终点后四个季度回到潜在产出,忽视了长期影响。本文从理论上证实未考虑长期影响将会低估牺牲率,并采用HP滤波估计中国季度和年度牺牲率分别为1.85和2.68,高于传统方法的0.28和0.3。季度牺牲率低于G7国家的平均水平,实证研究发现通货收缩速度、初始趋势通货膨胀率和贸易开放度是影响牺牲率水平的重要因素。 Sacrifice ratios is the cost of disinflation, which is defined as a ratio of the loss of output to the change of trend inflation. Ball （1994） assumes real output returns to its potential level four quarters after the end of an episode, which does not account for the long- lived effect. The article contains a theoretical model to explain sacrifice ratio less than that not taking into account for the long- lived effect, and developes new method of HP filter to measure sacrifice ratios： the average sacrifice ratio that account for long- lived effect are 1.85 and 2. 68 for quarterly and yearly disinflation episodes, which is higher than 0.28 and 0. 3 respectively measured by Ball （1994） . The empirical analysis indicates that speed of disinflation, initial trend inflation and openness are major influencing cause of the sacrifice ratio.

作者黄新飞舒元

机构地区中山大学国际商学院中山大学岭南学院

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第3期119-132,146,共15页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基金 2009年教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目青年项目 2008年国家自然科学基金(70803055) 2008年广东省自然科学基金的资助

关键词牺牲率长期影响潜在产出 HP滤渡 Sacrifice Ratios Long - lived Effect Potential Output HP Filter

分类号 F740 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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