风电场输出功率年度预测中有效风速预测研究

Effective Wind Speed Forecasting in Annual Prediction of Output Power for Wind Farm

风电场风电功率预测在风能利用中具有重要意义。利用历史年份的小时平均风速数据对下一年年度风速进行预测。对历史年份的小时平均风速数据以季度为单位进行小波分解,采用递推最小二乘法建立各分量的二元线性回归预测模型,将各分量预测模型等权求和集成为次年度对应季度的预测模型。对实测数据的仿真计算表明,提前一年的风速季度预测的平均绝对百分误差(mean absolute percentage,MAPE)为12.25%,提高了此类预测的精度。考虑具体风力发电机组的功率特性、机组效率和设备运行情况,可得次年度风电场输出功率值。

Wind power forecasting is very important to the utilization of wind energy. In order to forecast the yearly wind speed of the next year, the data of average wind speed per hour of the history is to be used in this paper. The wind speed can be decomposed into several different frequency bands based on wavelet decomposition, different recursive least square （RLS） models to forecast each band were built up, these forecasting results of high frequency bands and low frequency bands were combined to obtain the final forecasting results. The simulation experiment shows the average value of the mean absolute percentage error （MAPE） is 12.25% about wind speed forecasting and the prediction accuracy is improved considerably. Considering power characteristic of wind power generator, unit efficiency, operating conditions, the output power of the next year in wind farm can be obtained.