基于非均衡理论研究国际石油价格波动对中国经济的影响

Study the Influence of Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Economy by Non-equilibrium Theory

国际石油价格波动对中国经济的影响越来越受到人们的关注。基于现代经济学非均衡理论,根据道格拉斯生产函数找出石油价格波动对中国经济的影响作用机制。通过研究发现石油价格与经济增长、石油生产资料价格之间存在一定关系;然后又运用约翰森"协整"检验方法检验变量之间可能存在的协整方程的个数;最后利用包含一个协整约束的向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析石油价格波动对中国经济的影响。研究结果表明:从长期来看,石油价格上涨对中国经济增长具有负面的效应,而从短期来看,石油价格上涨对中国经济的增长有一定的刺激作用。

The influence of oil price fluctuation on China＇s economy has been paid much more attention. So the action mechanism acting on China＇s economy is analyzed by Douglas Production Function based on Non-equilibrium Theory in modern economics. We find that a certain relationship exists among the oil price, economic growth and the price of means of oil production. Then the possible quantity of cointegration equation among variables is tested by Johnson Co-integration test method. Finally we analyze the effect of oil price fluctuation on China＇s economy by VECM under the restriction of co-integration. Based on what we have done, we find the rising of oil price has the negative effect on Chinese economic growth in the long term and has the stimulus effect on Chinese economic growth in the short term.