小波分析印花税调整对股市成交量的影响

Wavelet Analysis of Adjusting Stamp Tax on Stock Trading Volume

在2008年中国股票市场的下跌趋势中,政府为提振股票市场,在2008年4月24日和2008年9月19日分别将印花税由3%下调至1%和单边开征印花税,引起当时市场的强烈反应。文章给出小波检验方法,考察印花税对大盘指数的走势的作用。从结果来看,短期内(小于4天)对股市成交量有很大促进作用,而长期(大于16天)作用有限。

The government reduced stamp tax from 3% to 1% on April 24th 2008 and took the unilateral stamp taxation on September 19th 2008, in order to stop the plunging trend of stock index. However, it seemed to lead to limit effect on raising index price. We make use of wavelet to analyze the time series of trading volume in Shanghai Stock Market, to evaluate the influence of adjusting stamp tax. As a result, in a short term, the market was deeply influenced by reducing or unilateral-collect stamp tax, and in a long term the effect was not so evident.