战争舆情演化建模研究

Study on Modeling of Warfare Public Opinion

在分析媒体传播效果、人际传播效果为影响战争舆情演化主体(个体)立场演变的主因基础上,采用自底向上的基于Agent的建模理论与方法对战争舆情演化复杂系统进行建模研究,详细描述了媒体Agent影响力以及个体Agent立场演化致因两类模型,给出了个体Agent立场演化依据以及规则,初步实现了某地区战争舆情演化模型原型系统,并进行了仿真实验与分析。结果表明,模型的建立为量化研究舆情演化问题提供了一种思路。

Mass media and human relationship communication effects are the main factors in the process of individual stand evolution. Be based upon the judgement, adopting the modeling theory based on agent to study warfare public opinion evolution, firstly, the media force agent and individual agent were described in detail; secondly, the evolution rule of individual stand was put forward. At last, a prototype system of warfare public, opinion evolution model was built. Experimental testing results indicate that it is useful to quantificationally study the problem.