基于云模型的目标威胁等级评估

Target threat assessment technology based on cloud model

目标威胁等级评估的实时性、正确性对于后续作战仿真具有重要意义.提出了基于云模型的威胁等级评估的方法,通过对依据专家经验得到的对定性概念评估的隶属云图的贝叶斯修正,得到了标尺云.由战场态势信息对标尺云的匹配和处理,最终得到了目标威胁评估云图,实现了威胁评估.定性概念对战场态势的描述以及隶属云图体现了模糊性与随机性的较好结合,反映了空战时飞行员获取信息的不确定性的特点.通过实例验证表明:基于云模型的威胁等级评估的方法能有效地实现对目标威胁等级的确定.

The accuracy and good characteristic in real-time of target threat assessment have important significance to military campaign simulations. The target threat assessment technology based on cloud model was proposed, and the staff gauge clouds were obtained through Bayes revision on the membership clouds gained depending on experts＇ experience which evaluated on qualitative concepts. Finally the cloud diagram of target threat assessment was obtained through battlefield situation information matching the staff gauge clouds and data disposal, and the assessment was realized. The description of battlefield situation with qualitative concept and membership clouds achieve a good integration in fuzziness and randomicity, which reflect uncertainty when pilots obtain information in air war. An example was given to validate the target threat assessment technology based on cloud model, and the results indicate that threat level assessment can be realized availably by this technology.