中国碳排放区域格局变化与减排途径分析

An Investigation on Spatial Changing Pattern of CO_2 Emissions in China

作为世界能源消费大国,中国的碳排放问题不仅体现在总量增长方面,而且也体现在碳排放的空间格局变化方面。从大区地域系统变化来看:东部地区的碳排放始终在全国占据着主导地位;中部地区碳排放在全国的比重表现出稳中有降的态势;西部地区比重虽较小,但基本保持着上升趋势。从省(区、市)级变化来看:1953年以来,碳排放的区域差异不断增大,并且其变化可以分为3个阶段:1952年为起始阶段、1953年-1980年为初级分化阶段、1981年-2005年为快速演进阶段。本文试图通过产业-能源关联和能源-碳排放关联两个基本评价模型,解析中国碳排放区域格局变化的原因。分析结果表明:①产业结构的演进决定着一次能源消费的基本空间格局;②地区产业结构多元化程度越是走向成熟,其一次能源消费的增速也就越是减缓;③缓慢的一次能源消费结构变化是难以降低地区碳排放增长的关键所在。因此,加快产业结构演进速率以逐步减缓地区一次能源消费总量增长,以及最大限度地改善各地区、特别是东部地区的一次能源供应结构,是有效控制区域碳排放增长的关键。

As one of the world largest emitters of greenhouse gases （GHG） emissions, China has been facing a great challenge of CO2 emissions on aspects of an increasing quantity and a great change in spatial patterns as well. The authors were intent to place emphasis on regional changing patterns of CO2 emissions in the present work. The spatial changing pattern at the regional level in East China suggested that it has been accounting for the largest portion of national CO2 emissions since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China whereas the central part of China generally showed a slight decreasing trend in CO2 emissions. The western China just accounts for a small portion of the total of the national CO2 emissions, with basically showing an increasing trend. It was also found that at the provincial level, the difference in regional CO2 emissions has progressively increased since 1953. In order to reveal the spatial changing pattern of CO2 emissions at both regional and provincial levels, the authors made use of two evaluation models： the industrial-energy interconnection model and the energy-CO2 emissions interconnection model. The findings are helpful for policy making on China＇s CO2 emissions. First, it was suggested that a diversified economic structure largely determined the regional economic development as well as the changing pattern of regional CO2 emissions. For instance, the number of over CO2 emissions at the provincial level increased from zero to two during the period between 1980 and 2005 since local economic development dominated by the manufacturing industry in coastal areas was growing rapidly. Second, the more diversified economic structure a region exhibited, the slower increasing rate in energy use. The total energy consumption of East China between 1991 and 2005, for example, showed an annual increase of 5.30%, when its economic structure diversified values （ESD） increased from 12.2 to 38.9, or reaching a 8.02% increase per year. Finally, it was implied that a drastic structural change in energy use in China makes it quite difficult for any region itself to reduce CO2 emissions in the short-term. To sum up, China would have a long way to go to achieve a tolerable target of low carbon economy if it still remained traditional energy consumption patterns.