低碳经济模型现状和几个理论问题探讨

Current Situations on Low Carbon Economy Models and Discussion on Several Relevant Theoretical Issues

在全球气候变化研究领域,发展低碳经济已日益受到世界各国学者及政府部门的关注。发展低碳经济,进行技术创新成为当前应对气候变化的一种有效途径。中国未来的主要目标仍然是减少贫困、发展经济、提高全体居民的生活水平。因此保持一定的经济增长速度、满足基本的人文发展需求是研制中国低碳经济评价模型的一个重要前提。本文首先概述了全球CO2的排放特征,再对当前碳减排模型中不同模型的特点、存在问题作了阐述,并结合中国经济社会发展特点对开发中国低碳经济评价模型涉及的3个理论问题进行了探讨,包括可持续发展与低碳经济的关系,技术进步的内生化问题,发展中国家环境-经济模型构建问题。

Low carbon economy has been receiving more and more attention worldwide. Development of low carbon economy is a promising way to make technological innovation adapt to climate change. The main short-term goals for China are still to eliminate poverty, develop economy and improve living standard of people. To this end, it is considered a critical presupposition in building low-carbon economy evaluation models for China with the objectives of maintaining certain economic growth rate and fulfilling essential human development as well. In the present research, the authors first briefly introduced global CO2 emissions situations. The total emissions of greenhouse gas （GHGs） increased from 28.7 billion tons CO2-eq in 1974 to 49 billion tons CO2-eq in 2004 according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, at an annual growth rate of 1.6% on average. From the viewpoint of sectors, the energy-related CO2 emission is involved in the industry with most emissions and grows rapidly most, showing a 145% increase in CO2 emissions in the year 2004 in comparison with the level in the year 1970. China is the second largest CO2 emitter after the United States. Compared with an average level of the world, the main source of CO2 emissions in China is coal consumption, generally accounting for more than 70% in primary energy consumption. It was estimated that the CO2 emission intensity, defined as CO2 emission demand per unit of GDP in China, is about 22.55 CO2 t per one million dollars GDP in 2006, which is higher than 2.93 times of the world average. Subsequently, we analyzed merits and shortcomings of basic models used in hybrid models of carbon abatement. It can be concluded that there are two types of models： the top-down model and the bottom-up model, such as the I-O model, macro-economy model, CGE model, energy demand model and energy supply model. The abatement evaluation model should be categorized as the hybrid model combined with the top-down and bottom-up model by soft or hard implementation. So far the most integrated models are considered soft connection. Last, we discussed several theoretical issues with respect to developing low-carbon economy models for China based on current socio-economic situations, including the relationship between sustainable development and low-carbon economy, driving forces of technology progress in low-carbon economy models, and how to build an economy-environment model in developing countries.