鄱阳湖流域经济增长与水环境污染关系研究

Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation of the Poyang Lake Basin

以经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型—环境库兹涅茨曲线为理论基础,利用鄱阳湖流域1992年-2006年间经济和水环境污染因子变化数据,选取典型水环境污染因子,建立表征水环境整体质量的环境综合指标体系,并分析模拟鄱阳湖流域经济增长与水环境之间的关系。结果表明,鄱阳湖流域经济和水环境之间的关系具有EKC曲线的特征,尽管鄱阳湖流域目前的水环境污染程度尚不显著,但其水环境质量与经济发展之间的关系处于相"冲突"阶段,主要是由于流域内产业结构不合理所致。因此,有必要对现有产业结构进行调整,逐步加强环境教育以提高流域内人民的环保意识,同时还需对生态脆弱的地区实施生态补偿措施。

The environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） has been applied to characterize the relationship between socio-economic development and environmental conditions commonly in large cities or countries. It is however not clear whether or in what a form EKC can be applied to understand the relationship in river drainage basins. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and provides very important ecological services at a scale larger than its drainage basin. It occupies a very large wetland that plays a very important role in regulating and retarding floods from the upper drainage basin of the Yangtze River. It also preserves biodiversity and has been the habitat for various types of cranes and birds. In order to avoid adverse effects of regional socio-economic development on the environment, it is necessary to know the current status of the environment and to identify effective approaches for coordinating the relationship between regional socio-economic development and environment protection. Aiming at these, the authors collected data on regional socio-economic and water pollution factors for the period 1992 to 2006 in the drainage basin and applied the theory of EKC to analyze the relationship between socio-economic development and environmental conditions. It was shown that in the Poyang Lake drainage basin, there are many water pollution factors that are closely related to regional GDP （Gross Domestic Product）. To reflect general conditions of water pollution, we established a water-environment index system using the weighted average of all important water pollution indices. Although the water pollution in the whole drainage basin is not very serious, the relationship between GDP and the weighted average of major water pollution indices shows a ＂U＂ pattern. This is consistent with the widely recognized forms of EKC consisting of two parts. The first part occurs when socio-economic development is at a low stage and socio-economic development has adverse effects on the environment. The second part of EKC occurs when socio-economic development goes through a high level and socio-economic development in a harmonious state with the environmental. However, it was found that over the period of 1992-2006, the relationship between GDP and the weighted average of water pollution indices exhibited a positive increasing trend in the drainage basin of Poyang Lake. This means that the regional economic development has been progressively damaging the environment. Since Poyang Lake is a very important wetland and the ecosystems are very vulnerable due to excessive land reclamation over the last 60 years, it thus needs to adjust the present industrial structure to reduce pollution. To achieve this, it is necessary to reinforce environmental protection and adopt ecological compensation to reduce poverty, together with environmental education.