我国养老保险对国民储蓄挤出效应实证研究——代际核算体系模拟测算的视角

Empirical Analysis of the Crowding-out Effect of Pension Insurance on National Savings in China:In a Perspective of Generational Accounting Simulation

文章根据中国特有的经济社会背景,运用Auerbach等(1991)提出的代际核算方法,设定符合中国国情的参数值,研究衡量中国现行的养老保险制度是否对国民储蓄存在挤出效应。核算结果表明:我国目前的养老保险体系使2007年我国私人消费从92168亿元上升至97059亿元,国民储蓄从122234亿元下降至117343亿元,国民储蓄率从48.99%下降为47.02%。因此中国现行的养老保险体系对国民储蓄存在挤出效应,但挤出效应并不大,而养老保险体系的构建对我国居民消费的提高却有很积极的促进作用,中国应该继续完善养老保险体系。

Under the special economic and social background in China, the paper applies the method of generational accounting invoked by Auerbach et al in 1991 to study the crowding-out effect of current pension insurance system on national savings in China. It shows the current pension insurance system in China makes the private consumption increase from 9216.8 billion RMB to 9705.9 billion RMB, the national savings decrease from 12223. 4 billion RMB to 11734. 3 billion RMB, and the national saving ratio decrease from 48. 99 percent to 47. 02 percent in 2007. Therefore, current pension insurance system has the crowding-out effect on national savings,but the effect is not significant. The pension insurance system could promote the private consumption, so China should continue to perfect the pension insurance system.