供求冲击与我国经济外部失衡——基于DSGE两国模型的模拟分析

Demand & Supply Shocks and China’s External Economic Imbalance:A Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model with Two Countries

文章为分析我国经济外部失衡问题,运用当前国际经济学领域先进的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)两国模型研究方法,模拟了在不同消费替代弹性下以技术冲击为代表的供给冲击和以货币冲击为代表的需求冲击对一国经济外部失衡的影响。研究结果表明这两种冲击发生后该国的外部资产和汇率水平会从初始的"0均衡"状态偏离,而到最终收敛大约需要10年到15年的时间。这可以很好地解释当前我国的经济外部失衡,文章也依此提出了相应的政策建议。

To study the external economic imbalance in China, the paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model with two countries and then simulates the different effects of supply shocks represented by technological shocks and demand shocks represented by monetary shocks on a country＇s external economic imbalance under different elasticity of substitution in consumption. It finds that the foreign assets and exchange rate deviate from its ＂steady state＂ when these two shocks occur, and it takes about 10 to 15 years for the country to reach its new equilibrium level. This gives a sound explanation of the current external economic imbalance in China. The paper finally puts forward some policy recommendations according to the study.