船东风险评估及实证研究

Risk Assessment of Shipowner and Empirical Research

船东风险是造船企业面临的主要风险之一。船东风险持续时间长、发生的后果对造船企业造成的损失大,并且由于受航运市场波动的影响,具有很大的不确定性,因此船东风险评估成为造船企业风险决策的重要依据。在建立船东主要风险体系的基础上,应用模糊层次分析法建立船东风险评估模型,通过调研我国某家厂的国外船东A,应用建立的船东风险评估模型对其进行风险评估,并对该船东的风险进行了分析。基于模糊层次分析的船东风险评估模型,将对船东风险的模糊判断转化成风险数值,以直观的形式将船东风险及影响船东风险内外部特征的评估值呈现出来,为船厂对船东风险分析与接单决策提供技术支持,具有普遍意义。

Shipowners＇ risk is one of the most important risks that shipbuilders face. Because of its long duration, possible severe accidents consequences and great uncertainty affected by fluctuation of shipping market, the assessment of shipowners＇ risk becomes an important basis for shipbuilders＇ risk decision-making. In this paper,the risk assessment model of shipowners is set up through taking F-AHP into account, and shipowner＇s risk structure is established to investigate shipowner A at some domestic shipyard. The risks of shipowner A are measured ,then relative evaluations are made. In the risk assessment of shipowner based on Fuzzy-AHP converts the vague judgments about shipowners＇ risk are converted to risk values, then the shipowners＇ risk and evaluation scores of internal and external factors can be shown intuitively. That provids technical support for risk analysis of shipowners and decision making on the order price,thus practical and has the universal significance.