碳减排的国家驱动力分析及对中国的应对政策的探讨

A Research on the Driven Mechanism for Carbon Reduction and a Discussion of China's Policies

随着气候变化影响的深入,碳减排成为世界各国所共同面临的问题.针对各国气候变化政策的差异,通过理论研究和案例分析的方法得到了碳减排的国家驱动机制.认为一国受气候变化影响程度、经济发展水平、减排成本、技术水平、政治背景以及研究观点等具体变量会影响由经济利益、国家安全、国际地位以及政党利益等要素构成的国家利益综合指标,进而由于追求本国国家利益最大化而形成不同的政策立场.进一步对我国的政策检验指出,我国所采取的适当减缓的国内行动在当前是比较合理的,但从长远来看则过于保守,未来应该更积极的作为.

Following with the worsening impact of climate change, carbon-reduction becomes a large problem in all countries. To explain the differences among the countries＇ attitude towards the problem, the driven mechanism for carbon-reduction is studied through theoretical research and case analysis. The national policies on carbon emissions are affected by the maximum of national interests which is a integrated index constituted by economic interests, national security, international status, political interests and other factors. And national features such as degree of economic development and impact of climate change, mitigation costs, low-carbon technologies, political background, and research will make the policies different to maximize their own interest. It also tests China＇s climate change policies based on the mechanism. And the result shows that the slow-down policy which is implementing in China is reasonable for now but too weak for the future.