中国第三产业碳排放量与入境旅游人均消费的相关关系探析

Correlations between carbon emissions of the third industry and inbound tourist consumption per capita in China

CO2排放已成为全球环境研究关注的焦点,近年来政府、相关研究者也开始重视旅游业对全球环境变化的影响。认识旅游活动与CO2排放的关系,分析旅游活动中影响CO2排放的主要因素与原因对于实现旅游业的绿色发展有重要意义。运用SPSS软件对1980-2002年我国入境旅游人均消费与第三产业碳排放量进行相关分析。结果表明:中国入境旅游人均消费与第三产业碳排放呈显著相关性,且二次曲线方程能映示20多年来中国入境旅游人均消费与第三产业碳排放之间的关系,这种"U"型曲线的右半部分说明随着入境旅游人均消费水平的提高,对碳排放的影响开始是缓慢增加,后来呈加速增加,能很好反映我国旅游发展与环境保护之间仍存在着较突出的矛盾,要达到二者协调发展的阶段仍是漫长的过程;在入境旅游者消费中,人均交通、餐饮、住宿等的消费与中国第三产业碳排放都有相关性,与中国第三产业碳排放相关性最大的是交通消费,其次是餐饮消费,较小的是住宿消费;入境旅游者的人均消费水平、消费结构及在交通、餐饮、住宿等消费活动都是影响碳排放的重要因素。并在分析其原因的基础上,对我国未来旅游业的绿色发展及减少碳排放提出一些建议。

CO2 emissions has become a focus of global environmental research.In recent years,researchers have begun to attach importance to the impact of the tourism industry to global environmental change.The purpose of the study is to explore correlation between tourism activities and CO2 emissions,and to examine the main factors and reasons of CO2 emissions in tourism activities.In the paper SPSS software was used to analyze inbound tourist consumption per capita and carbon emissions of the third industry for 1980-2006 in China.The results of this study indicated（1） there is significant relation between inbound tourist consumption and carbon emissions of the third industry in china,＂anti-N-type＂curve can be a good reflection of their relationship.That is,inbound tourist consumption per capita is a factor which has impact on carbon emissions.The changes of the curve suggests that with the improvement of consumption of inbound tourist,carton emmissions first decrease,then increase,and then furtherly reduct.This may be related to the structure and conception of tourists＇ consumption;（2） consumptions of transportation,catering,accommodation of inbound tourists are associated with carbon emissions of the third industry in China.The biggest correlation is transportation consumption,followed by catering consumption and accommodation consumption;（3） consumption level,consumption structure,and transportation,catering,accommodation consumption of inbound tourist are important factors affecting carbon emissions.Based on the causes of carbon emissions,such suggestions was brought up to reduce carbon emissions in tourism development of China in the future.