中国股市发展与经济增长的相关性研究

On the Correlation Between Development of Stock Market and Economic Growth in China

以沪市股价指数、工业增加值及其增长率作为研究变量,运用时间序列方法分析了我国股市发展与经济增长的关系。实证结果表明经济增长的确促进了我国股市的发展,但我国股市发展与经济增长之间的总体关系较弱。由于中国股票市场处于初步发展阶段,市场制度建设不完善,存在政策变动、机构操纵等非市场因素,导致股票价格异常波动,从而削弱了股市发展促进经济发展的积极作用。提出了完善信息披露制度,大力发展机构投资者,完善上市公司治理结构等政策建议。

A time-series analysis was made for the correlation between the development of stock market and economic growth in China, taking the monthly Shanghai Composite indices, monthly increments of industrial output value and their growth rates as variables. Empirical analysis results showed that although the economic growth factually stimulate the development of China＇s stock market, the relationship between them is faint. This is because that China＇s stock market is at an initial development stage where the market system has not been perfected yet for such existing non-market able factors as frequent policy changes, institutional manipulation of stock price and so on, thus resulting in the abnormal fluctuation in stock pieces so as to weaken the positive stimulating function of stock market for the purpose of economic growth. Some policies are therefore suggested including perfecting the system to make public the relevant information, developing institutional investors and perfecting the governance of publicly listed companies.