基于经济冲击对称性分析的中国—东盟货币合作新思考

Study on China-ASEAN Monetary Cooperation on Basis of Symmetry of Economic Shocks

2010年1月1日,中国-东盟自由贸易区的正式启动标志着双方关系的实质性提升,也必将促进双方在货币金融上的进一步合作。本文运用SVAR模型和相关性分析,从经济冲击对称性的角度,考察了中国与东盟10国货币合作的可行性。实证研究表明,中国与东盟10国货币合作的可行性在中国-东盟自由贸易区10年的建设期内得到了很大提高,其中印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南等东盟5国最适宜成为未来中国货币合作的备选对象。

The official launch of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area on January 1, 2010 marks the substantial upgrading of bilateral relations, which will also promote further monetary and financial cooperation. This text uses SVAR model and correlation analysis to study the feasibility of monetary cooperation between China and the 10 ASEAN countries from the aspect of economic shocks symmetry. The empirical result shows that the feasibility of monetary cooperation between China and the 10 ASEAN countries has been greatly improved during 10-year construction period of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area. And 5 economies, including Indonesia and so on, are shown most appropriate in future monetary cooperation with China.