基于分层动态映射的产品成本预测方法

Product cost prediction method based on hierarchical and dynamic mapping

为了细致考察成本变量的动态变动性与层次关联,提出一种基于"产品特征-过程消耗-成本"分层动态映射的精细化产品成本预测方法。面向产品族和产品系列,对设计层、过程实现层、资源支持层各层变量间的关联关系进行逐层分析,建立产品特征到材料消耗量、作业量的定量映射,采用时间序列分析方法对成本变量的时变规律进行分析和预测,构造产品特征与材料成本、生产作业成本的动态定量关系,实现基于特征的产品成本动态预测。以某企业设计、生产的翅片式换热器系列产品为例进行了研究,对预测模型的建立过程和应用效果进行了详细说明,并验证了预测方法的有效性。

To study dynamic characteristics and hierarchical relevances of cost impact on variables,a product cost prediction method based on hierarchical and dynamic mapping with a framework of ＂product feature-process consumption-cost＂ was presented. Oriented to product family and product series,the associations among variables from different layers （design layer,process implementation layer and resource support layer） were firstly analyzed. And then,the mapping from product feature to the material comsumption and operation consumption was established,and the changes of cost variables were analyzed and predicted with time series analysis method. The dynamic and quantitative relationships among product feature,material cost and product operation cost were established,and the dynamic product cost prediction based on product feature was then realized. Finally,a case study was given on cost prediction of heat exchanger production in a mechanical enterprise to demonstrate the construction process of the prediction model and its application results. Effectiveness of the method was verified.