基于情景分析的未来人力资源经理胜任力研究

A Study of Future HR Manager's Competency Based on the Scenario Analysis Technique

本文试图运用情景分析技术来解决未来组织需要什么样的人力资源经理这个难题。预测时间轴选择为五年,有三个关键因素深刻地影响着人力资源经理的胜任力,分别是组织文化的特点、管理职能、组织中所处管理层次的高低。文章从这三方面入手分析了关键外部力量,得到三个不确定轴面,分别是新技术新理论的发展、主体员工的变化、劳动力市场供求关系变化。由此构建了未来五年我国人力资源经理面对的最乐观、最悲观和最可能的情景,分别是"黄金时代"、"萧条时代"和"丛林时代"。然后,测量了在这些情景下人力资源经理胜任特征的重要性程度,相对目前状态下的可能变化,以帮助人们更好地认识未来人力资源经理的胜任特征。研究结论有助于区分出未来导向和非未来导向的人力资源经理胜任力,从而帮助招聘和培训适合未来需要的人力资源经理。

Under the market economic system, especially during the transition economic period, more and more organizations recognize the importance of the human resource managers. Some enterprisers with the strategic view pay the high salaries for the qualified human resource managers to let them be the strategic partner by exploring, using and integrating the human resource in the organization. However, what kind of human resource managers do organizations need in the future？ This study tries to resolve the problem by using the scenario analysis technique. The prediction timer shaft is selected as five years. There are three key factors which influence the human resource manager＇s competencies profoundly. They are the characteristic（s） of the organizational culture, the management function, and the management level in the organization. It analyses the key external powers from the aspects of above three factors. As the subsequence, three uncertain axes are selected as the development of the new technique and the theory, the change of the majority of employee in the organization, and the change of the relation between supply and demand in the labour market. It builds the most optimistic scenario, the most pessimistic scenario, and the most possible scenario respectively, which would be faced by the HR manager in the coming five years. They are ＂the golden time＂, ＂the depression time＂, and ＂the jungle time＂. Then, it measures the different level of the importance of the HR manager＇s competencies between these three scenarios and possible changes of present situation in order to help understand the competencies of future human resource managers. The results would be helpful to make a distinction between the future-oriented HR manager＇s competencies and the non-future-oriented HR manager＇s competencies to select and train the right human resource manager who fits the future conditions.