我国城市增长路径的非对称特征分析

The analysis in the asymmetrical characteristics of China's urban growth path

对城市间人口增长的不平衡或城市用地扩展空间不均等等有关城市异速增长问题的研究一直为理论界与决策部门所关注.目前所广泛使用的异速增长方程方法不能对城市增长过程中的非对称特征予以定量化描述.该文利用Markov区制转移模型分析了我国城市增长路径的非对称特征问题.研究结果表明,从GDP增长率序列来看,东、中、两3大地区城市确实存在长扩张、短收缩的非对称状态.从人口增长率序列和建成区土地面积增长率序列来看,东、中两大地区城市均存在非对称状态,而西部地区城市人口增长率序列的各状态的期望持久期基本持平.

China＇s urban population growth on the regional imbalances or the expansion of urban land use to determine the spatial disparity of the Chinese cities such as allometrie growth has been related to the theoretical circle of concern to policy-making departments. Currently widely used method of allometric growth equation is not the process of urban growth on the non-symmetrical features of the quantitative description. In this paper,Markov model analysis of the transfer of the district system of urban growth in China＇s path of non-symmetrical features of the problem. The results show that the sequence from the GDP growth rate, the eastern, central and western areas of the three major cities in the expansion of the existence of long and short of the non-symmetric state of contraction. Sequence from the population growth rate and growth rate of builtup area land area of sequence,the East,in cities there are two major areas of non-symmetric state,while the western region of the state of the city look forward to a lasting period of basically the same.