人民币资本项目可兑换问题分析

On the Problems of the Convertibility of Renminbi Capital Program

人民币实现资本项目可兑换的条件包括宏观经济的稳定运行、健全的金融资产价格体系、完善的国内银行组织体系、健全的微观经济运行机制、完善的金融监管体系等。与此同时,将会面临如下风险,包括短期资本流动风险、货币替代与资本外逃风险、金融危机的传染风险、丧失货币政策自主性风险、银行体系脆弱性风险等。在分析人民币实现资本项目可兑换的条件以及所面临的风险的基础上,对推进人民币资本项目可自由兑换的发展提出相关的政策建议,有重要的现实主义。

In the context of opened financial sector, how to maximize the optimization of the allocation of global resources to develop domestic economy, how to further Push on RMB capital liberalization, becomes the most pressing and important issue for China. RMB capital liberalization, including a stability of maeroeeonomic conditions, a regular system of financial asset market, a complete organizational system of the domestic banks, a regular mechanism of micro - economic operations, and the financial regulatory system. At the same time, it will face many risks, such as the risk of short - term capital flows, currency substitution and capital flight risk, the risk of transmission of financial crises, loss of autonomy of monetary policy risks, and the vulnerability of the banking system risks. In this paper, make relevant policy recommendations to push forward the development of the RMB capital liberalization, based on the conditions and risks which will be faced.