房地产价格影响因素分析:基于中国各省市的面板数据的实证研究

Factor Analysis on China's Real Estate Price: An Empirical Research of Panel Data

本文应用1999-2006年全国31个省市的面板数据,分析了影响中国房地产价格的各种因素。影响房价的因素众多,笔者主要选取了供给方、需求方、地方政府以及一些主要的货币政策变量进行理论分析,并结合中国房地产的实际提出相应假说。实证结果显示,房价推动力的主要来源是需求方,而地方政府对房价的影响也不可忽视,而供给方和货币政策的相关变量对房价影响相对较小,其中名义利率对房价不具有显著影响,而实际利率影响较显著。依据笔者的实证结论,本文提供了一些相应的对房价调控的政策建议。

This paper conducted a factor analysis on China＇s real estate price using panel data of 31 provinces during 1999-2006. After the theoretical analyses of factors of supply, demand, local governments, as well as monetary policy, several hypotheses are proposed. The empirical results show that demand-side factors are major impetuses to housing prices, and local governments＇ policies cannot be neglected. In contrast, supply-side factors have little influence. As for monetary policy-related variables, nominal interest rate does not have a statistically significant impact, while real counterparts do have significant influence. Based on our empirical results, corresponding policy suggestions regarding price regulation have been made.